Produce Transportation: Uncertain Miles Ahead

Tight capacity, labor strains and fraud impacting rates.

The produce transportation sector remains unsettled as broader economic pressures continue to influence the market. Freight rates are still adjusting, as the industry searches for a sustainable balance — one that keeps shipping costs manageable for produce companies while ensuring carriers can operate profitably.

Overall trucking activity in the United States increased slightly in December, according to the Washington, D.C.-based American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) latest figures, but volumes remained low after significant declines in late summer/early autumn. Truck freight tonnage increased 0.4% after rising 0.2% in November, according to the ATA’s advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index.

“Despite two consecutive gains, tonnage remains at low levels as the freight metric contracted a total of 2.7% in September and October,” says ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.

“Soft manufacturing and construction activity are continuing to suppress freight levels, as they did for much of last year,” Costello reports. “For 2025 in total, tonnage rose just 0.1% over the 2024 average, although it was the first annual gain since 2022.”

OVERCAPACITY ENDING?

“However, truck freight tonnage in January was down 1.3% from the 2025 high point in August,” Costello notes. “The trucking recovery story is more of a supply-side one with those motor carriers remaining benefiting from reduced overall capacity.”

In the produce sector transportation, Fred Plotsky, president of Cool Runnings, Kenosha, WI, says business in general has been flat.

“We do a lot of business that we’ve always done,” he says. “People are constantly trying to watch costs, but as we call around as a truck broker, the market has tightened. Carriers have gone out of business because the rates were low. They’re still below cost, but carriers are demanding rates where they could make a living. The customers are paying it on a tight spot rate.”

“People are constantly trying to watch costs, but as we call around as a truck broker, the market has tightened. Carriers have gone out of business because the rates were low.”
Fred Plotsky, Cool Runnings, Kenosha, WI

Plotsky says with more drivers available post-holiday, there has been pressure on rates, as carriers continue looking for a better payday.

Ben Batten of Allen Lund, La Cañada, CA, says the year started as is common, with bids coming in from shippers, so the company could get better and more accurate pricing than when hedging on 12-month bids.

The rapid purchasing of trucks that came during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent removal of those vehicles and drivers from the scene when rates tumbled has processed through the market to some degree.

“We’ve been in the longest trough of overcapacity we’ve seen in a long time,” says Batten. “That happened in ’23 and ’24. I think we found the bottom a while back in ’25, and that started to creep back up, as far as capacity tightening up a little bit. Q4 of ’25 was the tightest of all quarters in ’25.”

He says typically, the first two weeks out of January were also tight across the country, due to the holidays and weather events. “Drivers, and a lot more foreign drivers, tend to want to take off around New Year’s. That takes capacity out of the market.”

A CERTAIN UNCERTAINTY

He says changes in how states are responding to developments with non-domicile commercial driver’s licenses are also having an effect. Some states are doing more enforcement of the associated rules, while others are not as strict.

“We’re expecting, probably, moderate increases in freight rates in ’26 compared to ’25,” says Batten.
Despite the ups and downs, an underlying issue remains: Drivers are not abundant.

“There’s been a driver shortage for so long,” says Batten. “If the market gets better, we’re going to see more drivers come into it like we did in ’21 and ’22. But if it stays tough to make money, it will be tough to get drivers. Carriers simply aren’t buying trucks and putting drivers in the seats, at least the small guys.”

Paul Kazan, president at Target Interstate Systems, Bronx, NY, says labor is a long-term problem within the produce transportation system. “When it comes to trucking and logistics in the produce business, we’ll be seeing a supply side issue, where now, demand is strong, but rates have come up because of lack of transportation.”

Kazan notes issues related to immigration enforcement and rules about English language fluency are having an effect, as some truckers are avoiding jobs that involve travel to border crossings or their vicinity, through which a lot of produce flows. In a similar vein, many truckers are avoiding states that are more strictly enforcing English-language fluency requirements. In both cases, driver availability and routing may be affected.

“A lot of trucks have come off the road,” says Plotsky. “So, that has led to higher pricing, but not from greater demand.”

What’s making things more difficult is that without a consistent pool of labor in produce transportation, the ability to find drivers with knowledge of how to handle produce loads, especially in multi-pickup runs, becomes more challenging.

Batten says that drivers refusing travel to certain regions can cause disruption.

“Florida is a good example of that,” he says. “Typically, Florida’s got a very busy season in the spring and early summer. Outside of that, capacity’s plentiful. There have been times, even this fall and winter, when it’s typically never a problem, when it’s tight down there for trucks. A lot of those drivers that are non-domiciled, I know, are avoiding states like Florida and Texas.”

AI ON THE SCENE

There is growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in transportation, a sector that has been able to make improvements in efficiency using technology. Still, the impact is limited at this time, although that’s changing.

“Allen Lund Co. is fully embracing AI, but we’re improving manual processes like inbound email traffic and scheduling appointments, things like that, to be more efficient,” says Batten. “We believe, and I think a lot of people will agree with this, especially in produce, business is built on relationships. So, we don’t want to lose that, but we do want to embrace AI, and that’s been huge for the last year for us. We’ve spent a lot of time on that.”

“Definitely, AI is running strong right now, and in transportation for sure.”
Ben Batten, Allen Lund, La Cañada, CA

When it comes to AI, Plotsky says he is looking at AI for “lead generation on customers, carriers and just some helpful tips.”

He maintains that, although AI can help make some processes more efficient, experience is critical in produce transportation, and technology can’t replace a driver who understands what’s important in moving fresh fruits and vegetables.

CONFRONTING CRIME

Batten says one of the biggest developments over the past year or two has been a focus on carrier selection and qualification, especially in the face of fraud, as criminals find new ways to target the transportation sector.

“It’s been a massive topic in the industry,” says Batten. “They’re getting very good at it. So, there have been some third-party companies that have come to market, and a lot of brokerages and carriers are working to verify that the carrier is actually who they say they are, and the truck is really where it’s at, using more than just a driver’s cell phone tracking. It’s getting a lot deeper than that. We’re getting more selective in the partners we move freight with.”

Batten says technology and processes that help the transportation sector deal with fraud would be welcome, but technology alone isn’t going to help address the challenge fraud creates. He would like to see better cooperation across the supply chain when dealing with criminals who are targeting the transportation sector.

“If we’re in contracts with a produce company in Nogales to take it wherever, we have to have better cooperation with that place in Nogales, that they’re checking the credentials, this is the driver, this is the truck and trailer, then this is his license and all,” he says. “If we can do that, we can cut down on a lot of fraud. The problem is, a lot of times we’re talking with someone who’s on a dock and working for minimum wage.”

Unless workers are encouraged to help out, criminal activity, such as double brokering (the practice of passing loads to unauthorized carriers who will work for less money than the contract stipulates, with the fraudster pocketing the difference), is more likely.

“That’s the missing link right now,” says Batten.

BASIC COSTS

When it comes to fuel, Batten anticipates some lower prices, but it’s hard to say anything definitive given the political developments that affect the oil sector. Although lower, the cost is at a higher price than the company is getting on a fuel surcharge.

Plotsky says freight rates have remained a bit elevated lately, at the same time, fuel prices are down. That may help keep trucks on the road. “It’s definitely helped the bottom line of carriers.”