The New US Administration and UK Foodservice

What does a Donald Trump presidency mean for U.K. foodservice? A second term for Trump has the potential to create indirect, but meaningful, shifts in the restaurant and foodservice market in European and other markets.

Trump’s policies on trade and the economy could reshape supply chains, introduce inflationary pressures, and influence both consumer spending and expectations.

Trump’s assertive approach to trade could lead to tariffs on imports, raising costs for foodservice operators in Europe and elsewhere who depend on international supply chains. As a result, essential ingredients and imported alcohol may become pricier, and if trade tensions escalate, supply chain disruptions could lead to shortages.

In the worst case, prolonged high import costs may force operators to raise prices or cut menu options.
However, the growing trend toward local sourcing in many countries could mitigate these risks, as more consumers favor locally produced goods, and operators reduce their reliance on imports.

A second term for Donald Trump has the potential to create indirect, but meaningful, shifts in the restaurant and foodservice market in European and other markets.

Higher global inflation, a likely byproduct of Trump’s economic policies, would affect discretionary spending, limiting consumer budgets for dining out. This could reduce footfall in midmarket restaurants, while quick-service options may see a boost from budget-conscious diners.

In a worst-case scenario, prolonged inflation could make eating out a rare luxury, although restaurants with adaptable pricing and value-driven menus would still have room to succeed.

While Trump’s immigration policies directly impact the U.S., they may encourage skilled hospitality workers to consider opportunities in European and other markets, potentially easing some labor shortages. Yet, wage pressures in the U.K. would likely remain high, adding to operators’ costs.

Meanwhile, Trump’s deregulatory approach in the U.S. would likely drive innovation, particularly in delivery and automation. This push toward tech efficiency could raise expectations among consumers, pressuring operators to adopt similar solutions, which, while costly, could ultimately enhance service and reduce operating costs.

Trump’s climate policies could also shape consumer sentiment in markets in Europe, as environmentally conscious diners increasingly favor sustainable dining options. Operators that prioritize eco-friendly practices may resonate strongly with these value-driven customers.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is likely to bring both challenges and opportunities for the foodservice market. The key question: Can foodservice businesses turn these challenges into growth opportunities?

Peter Backman has been involved as a consultant within the foodservice sector for over 30 years. He is an expert on the structure and dynamics of the market in the U.K., across Europe, and in other major international regions and countries. His forthright and challenging views are based on data-driven insights, blending his knowledge with a deep understanding of its trends and challenges. He publishes a weekly blog — the Weekly Briefing Report (www.peterbackmanfs.com/blog).