Lessons from Detroit: Unexpected Predictors of Produce Demand

Fresh produce will always be a key import for any metropolitan area. However, while there may be some common signs that point to changing commodity needs in an area, there are unexpected ones as well.

Having operated out of Detroit for over 100 years since founding our company here in 1906, we’ve had a front row seat to how a city evolves. Here are some unexpected indicators that signal growth for fresh produce:

HOLLYWOOD RIPPLES

Detroit is 2,000 miles away from Los Angeles, but it’s still been home to several big-budget productions, like Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and five Transformer movies, when Michigan was offering filming tax breaks from 2008 to 2015.

Batman v Superman alone spent $131 million filming in and around metro Detroit for 10 months — meaning a lot of craft service. These are the on-site catering services used to feed cast and crew for long days, months at a time, and on closed sets, all while accommodating a wide range of nutritional needs and dietary restrictions.

This means we can expect to see a spike in demand anytime a production comes to town or when an area is offering tax incentives to filmmakers — just like Atlanta is doing now.

CENSUS DATA

Looking at the demographic makeup of an area is a great tool for predicting possible fluctuations in fresh produce demand. It can be a marker to show where to scale your business outside of your core community, targeting new markets for profitable expansion. It’s what helped our business grow throughout the Midwest and Canada.

For example, new areas can experience explosive growth, like we saw during COVID, as people left larger cities for more suburban areas — places that historically didn’t have the existing infrastructure to service the influx.

But population numbers are only one metric. Another big measurement is diversity. Using our backyard as an example, Michigan’s race and diversity index rose to 42.9% in 2020 from 39.1% in 2010, meaning it became more ethnically diverse. For our industry, that means that we can expect to see changes in demand for the types and number of commodities we supply.

As certain demographics become more prevalent in an area, that may point to trends for specific products and ingredients.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Here in Detroit, we’ve been witnessing how commercial real estate fluctuations can have a big impact on our business. When the city was experiencing an economic downturn in the early 2010s, pricing for commercial space dropped considerably.

However, this afforded a new phase of exciting growth, particularly in hospitality.

Aspiring chefs and restaurant owners who were priced out of other markets were able to make their dreams a reality by opening their businesses in Detroit.

Aspiring chefs and restaurant owners who were priced out of other markets were able to make their dreams a reality by opening their businesses in Detroit. At its peak in 2019 before the pandemic, nearly two dozen restaurants opened, helping to contribute to $1 billion in revenue. As a result, the restaurant scene boomed, and the demand for fresh produce did as well.

There are many ways to future-proof our business — looking at historical data, sales numbers and more — but to be forward-thinking, it’s important to consider the out-of-the-box factors that can impact demand as well.

Jordan Grainger is vice president of sales and business development for Ben B. Schwartz & Sons, Detroit, MI.