Transportation’s Roadmap for 2026

Trucking and logistics companies lean heavily into tech to offset tariffs, labor and tight margins.

Produce transportation has been available and at pretty good rates this summer, but what has been a soft market for drivers shows signs of an uptick.

Evidence doesn’t suggest a surge in demand and rates, but at least some transportation professionals have seen a little more cost creep into the market. At the same time, outside forces are making decisions that may cause minor difficulties in produce transportation.

ROLLING STEADY

According to the American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, general trucking activity across the United States slipped in June, as the freight market eroded during the second quarter’s last two months. Truck freight tonnage decreased 0.4% after falling 0.1% in May. Year-to-date, tonnage was up 0.1%, compared with 2024.

Fred Plotsky, president of Cool Runnings, Kenosha, WI, says there is an equilibrium between trucks and loads in regards to produce, subject to some seasonal variation when a growing area gets hot. Overall business for truckers has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic peak, however he says that may be changing.

“It seems like rates are coming up and equipment is about even with loads,” Plotsky notes. “A lot of people turned in equipment because of lack of demand. Now it’s starting to find a level, and we’ll see what happens. In my opinion, I see it on the verge of picking up.”

Todd Bernitt, vice president of managed solutions of Robinson Fresh, a division of C.H. Robinson, Eden Prairie, MN, says current capacity supply “is meeting demand outside of a few ‘hot spots’ related to traditional peak times off the West Coast row crop, grapes, etc., for this time of the year.”

He adds the company’s network of temperature controlled containers “ensures coverage and provides the ability for produce companies to pick and choose the best quality product, no matter the origin growing area.”

Bernitt says rates remain fairly stable on committed or contract freight, with transactional rating higher toward weekends, “but outside of that, we’ve got capacity to fill the current demand. Unknown economic environment and unknown tariff impacts are keeping any new capacity on the sidelines for now.”

Colby Varley, vice president, sales/principal, Advanced Transportation Services, Visalia, CA, says business seems to be flat. “We went through Memorial Day, Mother’s Day, Easter and the Fourth of July with no major disruption in the supply chain. There is still downward pressure on the freight rates as we move into Q3. The industry seems to have less orders with more than enough capacity in the market currently.”

Evan Kazan of Target Interstate, Bronx, NY, agrees, observing that there is no shortage of drivers and trucks right now, and no particular operational issue that can be disruptive and quickly drive up rates.
Still, changes in the marketplace generate changes in transportation.

“We continue to see capacity migrate to the refrigerated space, and more importantly, the produce hot spots, which is a slight offset to the surge we see during domestic produce seasons, keeping our demand and supply in relative balance,” notes Bernitt. “All of that said, demand outweighs supply in surge seasons, and C.H. Robinson’s vast network of produce centric carriers allows for us to outperform regardless.”

BIG PICTURE

Transportation companies always keep an eye on macroeconomic developments.

“Produce is a global commodity and there are changes in where some items are coming from, which can shift volumes to import locations when grown in Central and South America,” says Bernitt. “Produce carriers are migratory in nature and build these fluctuations into their model, as does C.H. Robinson.”

On the foodservice side of the transportation sector, demand is relatively low, while, on the retail side, it’s flat. Some capacity has been leaving the market, and that could have an impact when peak conditions arise, Bernitt points out, but processes and automation lately put into place can help under those circumstances.

“Carriers have shown they enjoy the ability to pick and choose the freight they haul through digital procurement,” he says. “This behavior change has allowed for increased automation in the carrier’s load selection process.

“Technology is something C.H. Robinson has invested significantly in. As a result of the rise in digital procurement, we have been able to widen the net of refrigerated and produce capable carriers we can engage with both digitally and through traditional means.”

THE TECH ANGLE

Over the past five years, technology has been at the forefront of produce transportation, says Advanced Transportation Services’ Varley. “The list is endless, but some key standouts are temperature monitoring, automated location updates, sending and receiving orders via Electronic Data Interchange and score cards.”

Plotsky says AI is going to have an impact on transportation as companies use it to improve efficiency initially. However, it’s a huge investment and it will take time to see comprehensive effects as companies weigh the investment against the savings. “But it’s out there,” he says. “People are interested.”

“I still think when you have a three-pick produce load in California, you need a driver who knows how to pinwheel and knows how to take a pulp temperature and make a phone call if there’s a problem,” Plotsky adds. “AI will take off, but will it be worth investment?”

“When you have a three-pick produce load in California, you need a driver who knows how to pinwheel and knows how to take a pulp temperature and make a phone call if there’s a problem. AI will take off, but will it be worth investment?”
— Fred Plotsky, Cool Runnings, Kenosha, WI

Kazan says that AI can only do so much, although it will be helpful in the transportation sector. “I think using it to make people better, smarter, more efficient is going to help.”

Some AI applications haven’t yet been tuned to the realities of trucking, so a trucker who has worked for a single company for years who goes to a driver board may be poorly rated, not because the driver is bad, but because the number of companies that have hired the driver is part of the evaluation algorithm.

In some cases, contacting the companies that run AI-driven systems is difficult when problems come up with a load, and there is the fear that AI will help fraudsters get even better at gaming loads.

On the flip side, as developers work bugs out of the system and people realize what is best handled by AI and what’s best handled by people, results will continually improve.

Bernitt says that C.H. Robinson continues to automate tasks, such as track and trace, appointment setting, load building, and price quoting. “Years ago, a customer would send an email and wait for hours to get their freight price quotes back. Using digital tools, we’re able to provide pricing to them in mere minutes.”

He says they are able to leverage technology to fill the gaps whenever there is a need for intervention. “This advancement, along with the human element, has improved our service delivery and ability to create an even stronger customer and carrier experience.”

YEAR’S END

The second half of 2025 will come with some challenges, but also some opportunities.

“If fuel remains flat, and the economy starts to heat up, and interest rates are lowered, we’ll see demand beginning to increase and then capacity will need to return to the market quickly, or they’ll be a significant supply and demand imbalance, especially on produce freight as there will be more desirable freight for drivers and carriers to choose from,” says Bernitt.

He says service will continue to be the focus. During the height of COVID, customers were happy with a truck covering their loads. Today, customers are looking for a competitively priced truck that is efficient.

“Consumers buy differently today than in decades past, which has changed certain aspects of the supply chain. Integrating tech and AI capabilities into the supply chain, while providing the customer an industry leading experience, will be our biggest advantage,” says Bernitt.

Current economic uncertainties, however, come with a weight of concerns.

“I think it’s too early to tell what additional challenges lie ahead in regards to Canada and Mexico,” says Varley. “The current challenge is the rules of the game seem to change with abrupt notice. Yes, companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. Operational costs to run a trucking company are more than current market rates. Many companies are one mistake away from being out of business.”

“Companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. Operational costs to run a trucking company are more than current market rates. Many companies are one mistake away from being out of business.”
— Colby Varley, Advanced Transportation Services, Visalia, CA

Varley says the challenge becomes trying to “keep our carrier partners in business through these tough times in the market. We believe the advantage is our attention to detail and providing our customer with the absolute best value possible at a competitive price point. We are also always looking to improve no matter how small. Our customers expect results.”

Plotsky says as summer rolled in, he had experienced no significant impact on his business from the changing tariff impositions and negotiations.

“So far it’s been a lot of talk,” he says, adding a modest tariff probably wouldn’t have a big effect on Cool Runnings.

LABOR AND LANGUAGE

The enhanced rules about drivers needing to speak English has had an effect, although it’s spotty. Some companies have pulled drivers from their trucks, requiring them to get English language instruction to get on the road again.

Then, enforcement hasn’t been consistent. “It depends where you’re at,” says Plotsky who adds Wyoming is one state that is enforcing the rule. “I have heard from multiple drivers, if you can’t speak English, they’re putting you out of service. I don’t know what the net effect of that is. I don’t think it’s quantifiable on my end yet.”

Plotsky adds that labor is the biggest challenge produce transportation confronts in the long term because it’s harder to find drivers and other workers who will put in the extra effort required to learn and perform their jobs well. With the average age of a long-haul trucker creeping up, he wonders if a new generation of drivers is out there.

“Our driver fleet, three years ago, it was 56, so it’s got to be approaching 60 years old. So, pretty soon, they’re going to be retiring. I don’t really see the driver coming behind that,” he says.